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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–13 on winners
spread MAE 12.8
40 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+3.6 | 137.9 | 70% | 81–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+22.0 | 144.3 | 90% | 54–104 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 136.0 | 32% | 72–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 141.2 | 66% | 53–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 135.5 | 85% | 57–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 161.1 | 78% | 102–100 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.4 | 137.0 | 88% | 64–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 142.2 | 64% | 106–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.7 | 144.3 | 30% | 90–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 126.1 | 45% | 73–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.8 | 163.8 | 34% | 74–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.4 | 140.0 | 47% | 70–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 151.3 | 60% | 58–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 147.8 | 64% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 132.4 | 45% | 52–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.0 | 149.7 | 86% | 59–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+24.7 | 150.9 | 91% | 47–104 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 143.0 | 83% | 87–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 149.7 | 45% | 78–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 150.0 | 48% | 61–101 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.4 | 152.6 | 31% | 97–102 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.5 | 140.9 | 27% | 59–46 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 140.4 | 64% | 73–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 156.9 | 47% | 91–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.8 | 161.8 | 89% | 72–105 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 145.9 | 84% | 75–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.8 | 143.3 | 26% | 72–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.0 | 155.2 | 73% | 74–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.4 | 146.7 | 20% | 67–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 135.0 | 73% | 69–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 140.3 | 74% | 66–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 152.2 | 66% | 69–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 144.9 | 54% | 77–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 141.9 | 84% | 84–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.8 | 140.1 | 64% | 74–58 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.5 | 147.9 | 48% | 65–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.3 | 144.0 | 73% | 66–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 153.6 | 56% | 72–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.3 | 161.5 | 53% | 97–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 162.4 | 62% | 83–104 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.