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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–8 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mississippi State
@
Tennessee
|
+12.4 | 126.1 | 85% | 53–87 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Boston College
|
+1.1 | 134.0 | 55% | 63–70 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Louisville
|
-10.0 | 141.7 | 17% | 70–69 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Michigan State
|
+4.6 | 129.9 | 71% | 56–74 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
Vanderbilt
|
+10.0 | 133.2 | 86% | 79–84 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+1.1 | 156.0 | 58% | 91–65 | ✗ |
Ball State
@
Toledo
|
+2.4 | 157.1 | 64% | 90–83 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+17.2 | 135.7 | 91% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Buffalo
|
-1.3 | 154.4 | 45% | 72–75 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Akron
|
+11.0 | 139.9 | 87% | 51–76 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Central Michigan
|
+6.6 | 146.5 | 77% | 56–68 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Kentucky
|
+7.5 | 141.3 | 78% | 71–74 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Creighton
|
+6.8 | 140.8 | 76% | 61–83 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Texas Tech
|
+0.1 | 144.4 | 45% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Texas
|
+7.1 | 146.6 | 75% | 116–103 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
Alabama
|
+11.2 | 149.8 | 87% | 62–84 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Pittsburgh
|
-0.2 | 132.7 | 51% | 65–68 | ✗ |
Minnesota
@
Wisconsin
|
+13.1 | 133.5 | 87% | 60–63 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Air Force
|
-6.9 | 140.8 | 23% | 77–65 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Boise State
|
+7.2 | 130.8 | 74% | 64–67 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Fresno State
|
-6.9 | 136.3 | 25% | 67–71 | ✗ |
Charleston
@
North Carolina A&T
|
-9.4 | 151.2 | 18% | 92–79 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Georgia
|
-2.5 | 134.2 | 41% | 64–76 | ✗ |
Villanova
@
Georgetown
|
-5.2 | 145.8 | 30% | 73–57 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.