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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–7 on winners
spread MAE 7.7
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+4.2 | 131.2 | 69% | 65–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.3 | 141.0 | 59% | 60–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 134.4 | 64% | 82–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 137.1 | 63% | 76–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.3 | 131.1 | 77% | 46–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 143.6 | 88% | 48–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 137.2 | 69% | 69–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.8 | 138.2 | 59% | 67–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.5 | 151.4 | 76% | 62–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 140.0 | 62% | 59–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 143.1 | 59% | 77–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.3 | 133.7 | 48% | 60–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-11.8 | 151.4 | 14% | 84–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 159.9 | 36% | 96–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.