Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | SJU +125 MARQ -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +11 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -3.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -2.5 (-8.5) | 158.7 (+22.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -2.0 (-9.0) | 158.9 (+22.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -2.8 (-8.2) | 159.9 (+21.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -2.9 (-8.1) | 159.9 (+21.1) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SJU 76 – 70 MARQ |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SJU 92 – 68 MARQ |
| Mar 14, 2025 | SJU 79 – 63 MARQ |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJU 86 – 84 MARQ |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 64 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#90) | 13.0 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#83) | 2.04 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#88) | 2.86 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#116) | 0.590 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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