Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +310 FGCU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -11.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -12.1 (+7.1) | 146.5 (+16.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -9.8 (+4.8) | 148.0 (+15.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -11.8 (+6.8) | 151.4 (+11.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -12.7 (+7.7) | 151.5 (+11.5) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | CARK 73 – 63 FGCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | FGCU 75 – 71 CARK |
| Jan 1, 2026 | CARK 85 – 83 FGCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FGCU 77 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 2, 2024 | FGCU 82 – 59 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#342) | 4.8 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#278) | 2.13 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#285) | 2.70 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#269) | 0.605 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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