Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO -188 SOU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +1 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | TXSO -1.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -0.8 (-1.8) | 144.7 (+8.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -1.7 (-2.7) | 144.7 (+8.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -1.8 (-2.8) | 143.1 (+9.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -1.0 (-2.0) | 143.6 (+9.4) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | TXSO 74 – 73 SOU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SOU 84 – 73 TXSO |
| Feb 18, 2025 | SOU 66 – 57 TXSO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SOU 67 – 58 TXSO |
| Feb 20, 2024 | TXSO 68 – 56 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#262) | -2.6 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#256) | -1.29 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#273) | -1.55 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#203) | 0.468 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.6% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 37.2% |
Game Analysis
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