Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | PV -120 GRAM +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +1 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | PV -1.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -1.4 (+2.4) | 133.8 (-12.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -1.2 (-0.2) | 132.3 (-11.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -0.3 (+1.3) | 133.7 (-12.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -0.4 (+1.4) | 134.8 (-13.8) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | PV 68 – 63 GRAM |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GRAM 76 – 72 PV |
| Feb 18, 2025 | GRAM 70 – 48 PV |
| Jan 4, 2025 | PV 73 – 55 GRAM |
| Feb 20, 2024 | GRAM 83 – 74 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-3 | 11-1 |
| Away | 4-14 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 63.1 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#243) | -0.6 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#268) | 0.33 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#235) | 0.60 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#234) | 0.539 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.4% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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