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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–8 on winners
spread MAE 10.4
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mississippi State
@
Tennessee
|
+13.0 | 128.0 | 86% | 53–87 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Boston College
|
+0.5 | 135.1 | 50% | 63–70 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Louisville
|
-8.5 | 144.3 | 18% | 70–69 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Michigan State
|
+5.0 | 131.7 | 71% | 56–74 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
Vanderbilt
|
+11.2 | 134.3 | 85% | 79–84 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+1.0 | 155.0 | 55% | 91–65 | ✗ |
Ball State
@
Toledo
|
+3.4 | 158.3 | 55% | 90–83 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+19.7 | 135.7 | 91% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Buffalo
|
-1.8 | 154.1 | 44% | 72–75 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Akron
|
+11.2 | 140.1 | 86% | 51–76 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Central Michigan
|
+5.9 | 147.7 | 74% | 56–68 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Kentucky
|
+8.3 | 140.8 | 78% | 71–74 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Creighton
|
+5.9 | 141.7 | 76% | 61–83 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Texas Tech
|
+0.9 | 146.2 | 41% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Texas
|
+7.6 | 147.6 | 74% | 116–103 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
Alabama
|
+11.9 | 148.3 | 85% | 62–84 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Pittsburgh
|
-0.2 | 132.9 | 61% | 65–68 | ✗ |
Minnesota
@
Wisconsin
|
+14.4 | 134.5 | 86% | 60–63 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Air Force
|
-6.6 | 141.2 | 22% | 77–65 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Boise State
|
+7.6 | 132.5 | 73% | 64–67 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Fresno State
|
-6.8 | 138.6 | 32% | 67–71 | ✗ |
Charleston
@
North Carolina A&T
|
-8.6 | 152.8 | 18% | 92–79 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Georgia
|
-2.4 | 135.2 | 46% | 64–76 | ✗ |
Villanova
@
Georgetown
|
-5.8 | 145.4 | 26% | 73–57 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.