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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–4 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+6.9 | 150.3 | 78% | 79–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 150.1 | 54% | 85–81 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.6 | 140.9 | 47% | 62–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 146.8 | 66% | 68–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 138.4 | 65% | 63–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 157.9 | 64% | 59–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 160.6 | 69% | 61–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 152.0 | 47% | 73–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 129.8 | 75% | 64–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 147.4 | 72% | 67–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.3 | 153.6 | 90% | 69–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 145.5 | 53% | 73–57 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.9 | 138.8 | 16% | 75–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 138.3 | 80% | 62–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 140.9 | 76% | 59–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+27.2 | 143.4 | 91% | 59–107 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 132.3 | 54% | 61–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.1 | 133.4 | 65% | 50–54 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 142.5 | 38% | 78–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 154.1 | 49% | 81–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.4 | 139.2 | 89% | 58–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 144.1 | 51% | 56–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 149.3 | 50% | 57–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.5 | 134.7 | 41% | 83–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 136.9 | 72% | 68–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.5 | 142.9 | 86% | 62–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.