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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–9 on winners spread MAE 7.9 26 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oklahoma @ Texas +4.5 142.9 66% 80–79 ✗
Kentucky @ Alabama +11.6 144.7 86% 59–70 ✓
Mississippi State @ Tennessee +11.8 134.7 85% 53–56 ✓
SMU @ Memphis +2.1 140.8 62% 72–76 ✓
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh +1.4 143.9 55% 75–65 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis +9.2 144.8 82% 94–92 ✗
Toledo @ Miami (OH) -3.8 151.2 32% 90–81 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Akron +14.9 148.4 90% 65–86 ✓
Drake @ Missouri State -3.8 147.1 24% 68–61 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Eastern Illinois +3.0 145.8 63% 87–74 ✗
Dayton @ Saint Louis +10.1 140.9 78% 76–71 ✗
Butler @ UConn +10.1 129.2 83% 51–63 ✓
Missouri @ Auburn +0.7 145.8 57% 82–88 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin -6.4 146.6 27% 66–69 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Duke +0.3 147.6 55% 68–75 ✓
LSU @ Texas A&M -7.3 140.3 27% 78–66 ✓
BYU @ Pepperdine -7.6 142.9 29% 73–76 ✗
Merrimack @ Long Island University +9.8 141.2 81% 68–63 ✗
Towson @ James Madison +6.2 147.2 73% 63–78 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis +9.4 149.4 82% 82–90 ✓
Bowling Green @ Kent State +8.0 154.8 77% 91–96 ✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle -5.3 140.0 30% 73–60 ✓
Wofford @ The Citadel -4.9 157.2 41% 69–77 ✗
Miami @ Florida State +14.6 143.5 89% 59–81 ✓
Duquesne @ Fordham -7.5 125.5 23% 86–62 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Florida +15.8 149.6 89% 71–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.