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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–12 on winners
spread MAE 9.8
29 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+6.1 | 141.2 | 76% | 80–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 143.1 | 67% | 68–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 137.1 | 37% | 61–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.1 | 140.6 | 39% | 68–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.7 | 127.8 | 68% | 58–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 136.9 | 54% | 63–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.2 | 133.2 | 31% | 105–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 155.5 | 53% | 89–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.1 | 150.4 | 82% | 74–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 138.6 | 71% | 77–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 131.6 | 43% | 68–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 131.4 | 82% | 68–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.4 | 149.8 | 86% | 92–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 133.9 | 43% | 61–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.1 | 146.4 | 61% | 63–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 138.6 | 46% | 61–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 128.7 | 40% | 65–48 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.0 | 138.2 | 29% | 78–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 131.8 | 47% | 55–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.8 | 151.3 | 87% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.1 | 153.1 | 37% | 75–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.1 | 140.0 | 46% | 77–83 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.4 | 134.7 | 34% | 69–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 148.1 | 68% | 64–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 143.8 | 42% | 73–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 144.4 | 63% | 69–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 162.8 | 42% | 104–105 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.0 | 136.4 | 81% | 80–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.5 | 153.3 | 56% | 87–82 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.