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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–16 on winners spread MAE 12.7 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas @ Tennessee +2.2 137.0 65% 81–76 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Kentucky +23.0 148.0 90% 54–104 ✓
Houston Christian @ The Citadel -3.8 136.1 42% 72–65 ✓
Pepperdine @ Fresno State +3.1 146.5 64% 53–76 ✓
SE Louisiana @ UNC Wilmington +15.0 131.5 86% 57–70 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Florida Gulf Coast +12.4 168.7 81% 102–100 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Cincinnati +15.3 141.6 87% 64–56 ✗
Columbia @ Fairfield +3.2 142.4 68% 106–77 ✗
Rhode Island @ Temple -6.2 142.4 23% 90–75 ✓
Indiana State @ Louisiana Tech -0.7 130.4 51% 73–75 ✗
St. John's @ Auburn -5.0 165.1 24% 74–85 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Wichita State +1.6 136.7 52% 70–65 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Memphis +3.0 155.1 63% 58–74 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Northern Arizona +2.8 149.5 67% 72–79 ✓
South Dakota State @ UC Irvine -2.1 135.4 43% 52–64 ✗
Denver @ Wyoming +14.7 149.1 85% 59–101 ✓
NJIT @ Louisville +31.3 155.7 91% 47–104 ✓
Alabama State @ New Mexico +11.7 145.9 84% 87–93 ✓
Idaho @ Cal State Northridge -3.8 148.6 42% 78–64 ✓
Gonzaga @ Michigan -0.3 155.5 37% 61–101 ✗
NC State @ Texas -3.5 154.3 28% 97–102 ✗
Iowa @ Grand Canyon -5.5 138.9 36% 59–46 ✓
Long Beach State @ Portland +5.5 143.4 60% 73–93 ✓
Baylor @ San Diego State -3.5 155.8 44% 91–81 ✓
Maryland @ Alabama +16.5 160.2 87% 72–105 ✓
Utah @ Ole Miss +10.2 148.9 84% 75–74 ✗
Richmond @ Furman -7.4 144.6 21% 72–73 ✗
VCU @ Vanderbilt +4.4 158.3 75% 74–89 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ East Carolina -10.6 144.4 19% 67–58 ✓
Charlotte @ Illinois State +3.6 135.9 60% 69–79 ✓
Oregon @ Creighton +4.8 140.6 68% 66–76 ✓
San Francisco @ Colorado +2.4 150.6 46% 69–79 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Virginia Tech +0.4 146.3 49% 77–66 ✗
TCU @ Florida +6.9 146.2 77% 84–80 ✗
Michigan State @ North Carolina +1.0 144.2 41% 74–58 ✗
UNLV @ Rutgers -0.0 150.4 46% 65–80 ✗
Nevada @ Washington +4.5 146.3 70% 66–83 ✓
BYU @ Miami -0.5 155.1 49% 72–62 ✓
South Florida @ Western Kentucky -1.6 165.3 51% 97–91 ✓
Providence @ Wisconsin +1.9 165.8 54% 83–104 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.