He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–14 on winners spread MAE 10.2 42 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northwestern @ Butler +0.7 137.7 64% 69–71 ✓
Kennesaw State @ UC Irvine +13.6 149.5 86% 59–76 ✓
Davidson @ Providence +6.0 140.7 58% 69–58 ✗
Northern Iowa @ North Texas +6.0 123.5 64% 48–68 ✓
Saint Mary's @ USC -2.6 138.2 34% 71–36 ✓
Mississippi State @ UNLV -7.2 144.0 26% 80–58 ✓
Kent State @ Towson -1.5 126.9 38% 65–54 ✓
Arizona State @ New Mexico +3.1 155.1 70% 85–82 ✗
Providence @ Indiana +0.4 140.8 54% 73–89 ✓
Alcorn State @ South Alabama +16.6 131.4 90% 65–74 ✓
Colgate @ App State +0.6 131.0 62% 50–72 ✓
Dartmouth @ Boston College +19.8 145.4 88% 88–83 ✗
Minnesota @ Wake Forest +0.2 127.7 55% 51–57 ✓
Bowling Green @ Weber State +2.2 142.9 54% 70–73 ✓
Valparaiso @ DePaul +15.3 151.1 85% 70–89 ✓
TCU @ Colorado State -1.8 138.2 50% 72–76 ✗
Merrimack @ Troy +12.8 134.6 78% 72–68 ✗
Maine @ Elon +5.8 139.4 70% 69–56 ✗
Niagara @ Binghamton -1.1 140.3 38% 65–62 ✓
VMI @ George Washington +12.5 146.8 88% 64–77 ✓
Tarleton State @ Iona +4.0 127.8 76% 51–62 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Ohio State +4.4 141.4 52% 91–90 ✗
Arizona @ West Virginia -1.5 153.9 45% 76–83 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Vanderbilt +14.4 153.0 88% 56–87 ✓
Morehead State @ Cleveland State +4.4 129.4 51% 71–69 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +3.9 140.0 61% 59–72 ✓
Wichita State @ Florida +13.0 152.2 80% 51–88 ✓
NC State @ BYU +4.6 145.1 69% 61–72 ✓
Pepperdine @ New Mexico State +5.4 136.7 69% 82–70 ✗
West Georgia @ Samford +15.5 149.4 87% 65–86 ✓
Sam Houston @ UNC Wilmington +0.1 150.6 67% 60–69 ✓
George Mason @ James Madison +3.5 143.0 60% 66–61 ✗
Holy Cross @ Virginia +11.6 126.3 84% 41–67 ✓
Santa Clara @ Washington -1.5 140.9 48% 69–76 ✗
Long Island University @ Lafayette +3.6 139.8 68% 56–75 ✓
Navy @ Pennsylvania +4.7 146.4 61% 86–78 ✗
Indiana State @ Arkansas State +6.5 156.4 77% 81–86 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Belmont +3.4 148.3 70% 74–83 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ East Carolina +9.6 151.6 85% 69–93 ✓
Oklahoma @ Louisville +2.1 144.9 60% 69–64 ✗
Ole Miss @ Purdue +2.8 141.9 71% 78–80 ✓
Utah State @ North Texas -5.4 130.2 28% 61–57 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.