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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–8 on winners spread MAE 10.3 24 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
NC State @ Louisville	+6.1	159.3	72%	77–118	✓
Southern Illinois @ Indiana State	-1.0	141.0	44%	80–65	✓
Texas Southern @ Bethune-Cookman	+9.1	147.3	82%	69–79	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Florida A&M	+2.0	141.0	60%	96–100	✓
Yale @ Howard	-4.9	144.3	21%	87–81	✓
Incarnate Word @ SE Louisiana	+0.4	132.2	53%	62–74	✓
Northwestern State @ Lamar	+8.2	134.5	80%	70–68	✗
Central Arkansas @ North Alabama	-8.6	144.3	19%	72–65	✓
Valparaiso @ Drake	+2.0	140.6	61%	81–76	✗
Alabama A&M @ Grambling	+3.9	131.8	68%	66–58	✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Nicholls	-2.4	141.0	39%	92–72	✓
Houston Christian @ McNeese	+16.0	136.7	90%	69–73	✓
East Texas A&M @ Stephen F. Austin	+16.0	140.0	90%	70–74	✓
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central	+6.0	132.5	71%	63–72	✓
Illinois State @ Evansville	-11.7	132.8	14%	80–88	✗
Belmont @ Bradley	-2.9	148.7	37%	84–95	✗
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State	-6.2	138.2	25%	74–66	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Charleston	+1.3	142.3	57%	76–64	✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Orleans	+0.8	141.9	53%	78–84	✓
Oregon @ Indiana	+11.6	141.3	87%	74–92	✓
Arizona @ Kansas	-2.1	143.6	38%	78–82	✗
Alabama State @ Southern	+5.3	149.1	72%	68–69	✓
Northern Iowa @ Murray State	+4.6	137.7	70%	89–60	✗
Milwaukee @ IU Indianapolis	-0.4	154.5	47%	92–88	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.