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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–9 on winners spread MAE 7.3 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
North Carolina @ Florida State	-1.3	153.1	46%	96–85	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M	+14.2	135.4	88%	56–64	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama State	+1.5	142.0	58%	70–68	✗
Bellarmine @ Stetson	+1.1	150.9	54%	67–69	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ McNeese	+14.5	142.6	88%	65–100	✓
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana	+5.2	134.3	72%	72–69	✗
Northeastern @ Monmouth	-0.3	140.8	50%	73–78	✗
Queens University @ West Georgia	-6.0	149.2	26%	72–57	✓
North Florida @ Florida Gulf Coast	+6.5	155.4	77%	82–86	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville	+1.8	147.2	60%	55–59	✓
Lipscomb @ Austin Peay	-6.7	142.1	24%	95–78	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls	+3.6	145.2	67%	69–71	✓
East Texas A&M @ New Orleans	+1.5	140.3	51%	73–71	✗
Lamar @ Incarnate Word	-0.1	131.1	46%	61–73	✗
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas	-11.8	148.4	14%	93–70	✓
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State	+3.0	151.3	67%	84–86	✓
Michigan @ Nebraska	-0.8	147.8	46%	49–46	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern	+15.4	147.6	88%	56–81	✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State	+12.5	153.6	88%	60–69	✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	-12.3	140.8	13%	81–68	✓
Howard @ Coppin State	-7.6	143.6	23%	61–72	✗
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M	-3.1	142.5	32%	66–77	✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Houston Christian	+0.4	132.0	50%	56–72	✓
Houston @ Texas Tech	+0.4	135.5	51%	69–61	✗
Kansas @ Colorado	-6.2	140.3	29%	71–64	✓
Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan	+3.2	147.9	65%	65–60	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.