Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–6 on winners spread MAE 8.7 23 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Morgan State @ Campbell +6.0 133.2 74% 76–83 ✓
Oakland @ Michigan State +11.3 135.9 82% 62–79 ✓
Bradley @ Duquesne +4.4 142.0 69% 67–69 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Marist +17.0 133.1 89% 52–76 ✓
Delaware State @ Wake Forest +16.0 147.1 88% 59–88 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Holy Cross -6.8 145.5 28% 77–57 ✓
Maine @ UCF +12.0 137.5 84% 51–74 ✓
Murray State @ Little Rock +4.1 151.6 66% 66–80 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Chicago State +5.6 138.2 70% 68–78 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Tarleton State +4.4 131.9 70% 65–62 ✗
UT Martin @ Evansville +9.0 164.2 81% 91–98 ✓
Southern Miss @ Lamar +5.1 150.8 70% 82–79 ✗
UC San Diego @ Sacramento State -0.4 137.5 51% 83–52 ✓
Portland State @ Fresno State +1.3 137.8 51% 75–72 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Cal Poly +2.4 148.2 59% 62–53 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Loyola Marymount +13.9 137.4 88% 56–76 ✓
Hampton @ Bowling Green +13.6 143.4 88% 65–75 ✓
Samford @ Valparaiso -5.4 146.6 28% 79–61 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Georgia Southern +0.2 139.7 46% 53–42 ✗
The Citadel @ Notre Dame +2.4 131.2 59% 65–45 ✗
Niagara @ Binghamton +10.2 150.3 84% 69–74 ✓
Georgetown @ Butler +12.0 153.6 88% 64–74 ✓
Morehead State @ Indiana +6.1 140.9 74% 68–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.