Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -175 PRST +148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRST +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | PRST -1.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -0.1 (-3.1) | 137.0 (+10.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -1.3 (-4.3) | 137.8 (+9.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -0.5 (-3.5) | 137.4 (+9.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -0.2 (-3.2) | 138.3 (+8.7) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-9 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#227) | 3.0 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#227) | 1.21 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#233) | 1.26 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#211) | 0.583 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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