Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Hanner Fieldhouse · December 19, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread GASO -3.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Money GASO -163 / FGCU +125
Model Predictions
Spread Total GASO win
Actual FGCU +11 95 Lost
Massey GASO -0.2 (-11.2) — —
Massey Totals — 146.4 (-51.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 44% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 50% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ GASO -0.7 (-11.7) 132.8 (-37.8) 47% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML GASO -0.2 (-11.2) 139.7 (-44.7) 46% ✓
Baseline ML GASO -0.5 (-11.5) 139.8 (-44.8) 45% ✓
Baseline Plus ML GASO -1.2 (-12.2) 136.3 (-41.3) 48% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 12, 2025 GASO 95 – 94 FGCU
Dec 1, 2022 FGCU 70 – 53 GASO
Dec 23, 2020 FGCU 73 – 60 GASO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GASO FGCU
Overall 9-24 14-18
Conference 8-10 8-8
Home 6-7 9-5
Away 2-14 5-10
Neutral 1-3 0-3
Last 5 0-5 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.3 69.2
Avg Pts Against 79.2 71.6
Massey -11.4 (#335) -6.8 (#292)
Bradley-Terry -3.39 (#356) -2.22 (#330)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.33 (#353) -3.25 (#329)
RPI 0.368 (#349) 0.415 (#305)
Shooting & Four Factors GASO FGCU
FG% 39.9% 42.6%
3PT% 33.9% 34.8%
REB / G 32.1 32.1
OREB / G 11.0 10.8
AST / TO 0.63 0.85
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.9% 49.0%
TOV% 20.8% 19.6%
ORB% 29.4% 31.7%
FT Rate 19.0% 21.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.2% 55.8%
Opp TOV% 18.4% 15.4%
DRB% 62.0% 67.2%
Opp FT Rate 30.3% 23.8%

Game Analysis

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