Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | ND -500 CIT +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +20 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -4.1 (-24.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -4.4 (-24.4) | 131.5 (-21.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -2.4 (-22.4) | 131.2 (-21.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -3.3 (-23.3) | 131.6 (-21.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -3.2 (-23.2) | 131.3 (-21.3) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#200) | -1.4 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#246) | -1.01 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#252) | -1.74 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#171) | 0.436 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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