Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -210 JXST +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +3 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -6.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -5.2 (-8.2) | 128.7 (-1.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -4.4 (-7.4) | 131.9 (-4.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -4.5 (-7.5) | 132.6 (-5.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -4.8 (-7.8) | 129.8 (-2.8) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 6-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#184) | -2.0 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#58) | -1.38 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#83) | -1.06 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#96) | 0.411 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.