Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | LR +100 MUR -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | LR -3.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -4.1 (+9.9) | 152.3 (-6.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LR -2.9 (+11.1) | 148.0 (-2.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | LR -4.1 (+9.9) | 151.6 (-5.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -4.2 (+9.8) | 153.0 (-7.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | MUR 89 – 68 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#230) | -2.4 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#261) | -1.52 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#258) | -1.67 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#284) | 0.413 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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