Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | UCF -1600 ME +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +23 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -11.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -14.2 (+8.8) | 135.6 (-10.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -12.0 (+11.0) | 137.5 (-12.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -12.1 (+10.9) | 137.7 (-12.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -11.1 (+11.9) | 138.5 (-13.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-8 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#78) | -0.5 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#111) | -0.02 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#102) | -0.10 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#98) | 0.468 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.