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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–6 on winners spread MAE 10.9 26 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Minnesota @ Purdue +18.5 139.2 89% 57–85 ✓
New Haven @ NJIT +1.3 130.0 33% 64–70 ✓
Charleston @ South Florida +17.9 152.3 86% 75–81 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Marshall +2.3 153.7 62% 61–77 ✓
New Mexico @ VCU +11.3 149.4 79% 81–78 ✗
Maine @ Boston University +8.9 134.4 77% 69–59 ✗
Bryant @ Iona +11.8 140.3 84% 63–69 ✓
Idaho @ Notre Dame +9.2 143.9 77% 65–80 ✓
Liberty @ NC State +10.8 153.5 81% 45–85 ✓
Massachusetts @ Boston College +0.5 134.1 56% 76–74 ✗
Colgate @ St. Bonaventure +8.4 145.1 78% 77–85 ✓
Delaware @ George Washington +23.3 153.4 90% 70–58 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fordham +12.8 135.6 86% 54–75 ✓
Jackson State @ Houston +34.7 137.9 91% 38–80 ✓
UT Martin @ Southern Illinois +2.6 141.0 64% 54–83 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Eastern Illinois +1.2 144.5 38% 68–59 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Tulsa +28.3 153.4 91% 84–117 ✓
Weber State @ Kansas City -5.9 146.8 21% 64–60 ✓
Idaho State @ Utah Valley +11.4 140.4 82% 69–73 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Purdue Fort Wayne +0.7 142.1 55% 65–80 ✓
Southern @ Texas State +3.3 143.2 65% 83–86 ✓
Wisconsin @ Nebraska +5.8 150.2 79% 60–90 ✓
Duquesne @ Boise State +14.2 143.6 86% 64–86 ✓
Lamar @ San Diego State +12.2 136.6 84% 71–89 ✓
Fresno State @ Cal State Northridge -1.9 146.4 44% 87–89 ✗
Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis -1.9 159.0 49% 85–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.