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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–4 on winners
spread MAE 8.3
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+30.3 | 134.2 | 90% | 60–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+34.6 | 140.4 | 91% | 67–103 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 140.3 | 34% | 69–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.5 | 144.3 | 89% | 65–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.4 | 133.9 | 24% | 68–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+24.0 | 131.3 | 91% | 58–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.4 | 144.9 | 41% | 73–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.0 | 141.2 | 60% | 66–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.6 | 135.2 | 34% | 51–38 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 151.5 | 55% | 88–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.6 | 146.8 | 86% | 79–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.6 | 146.6 | 87% | 49–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 149.9 | 84% | 72–113 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.1 | 153.2 | 89% | 79–106 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.5 | 156.2 | 18% | 94–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.5 | 151.6 | 89% | 55–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.9 | 146.6 | 86% | 48–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 139.8 | 71% | 73–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 136.0 | 74% | 83–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.7 | 142.5 | 86% | 67–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+24.0 | 146.7 | 90% | 82–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 132.6 | 64% | 59–56 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.3 | 149.9 | 45% | 90–87 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.