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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–1 on winners
spread MAE 10.5
9 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Carolina State
@
Charleston Southern
|
+13.7 | 146.3 | 89% | 44–84 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Southern Miss
|
+8.9 | 143.0 | 79% | 60–68 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Texas
|
+17.9 | 159.6 | 88% | 69–95 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Kansas State
|
+27.5 | 155.8 | 91% | 49–108 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
New Orleans
|
+1.7 | 149.1 | 57% | 83–84 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
UMBC
|
+1.3 | 143.5 | 58% | 83–79 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
VMI
|
+1.8 | 145.4 | 47% | 70–86 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
Michigan
|
+22.3 | 148.3 | 90% | 61–89 | ✓ |
Clemson
@
BYU
|
+4.9 | 152.4 | 67% | 64–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.