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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–4 on winners spread MAE 7.0 22 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Alabama @ Louisiana +0.9 139.1 55% 66–71 ✓
St. Thomas @ Oral Roberts +8.7 149.1 80% 65–70 ✓
Chattanooga @ Furman +6.1 153.5 74% 79–88 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Youngstown State +2.7 141.3 65% 75–63 ✗
Idaho State @ Montana +5.3 134.1 71% 74–83 ✓
BYU @ Saint Mary's +7.1 132.7 75% 69–76 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +6.7 154.5 73% 82–78 ✗
Towson @ Charleston +6.0 147.8 76% 72–77 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State +2.6 136.5 62% 89–79 ✗
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee -2.6 145.7 36% 93–80 ✓
Sacramento State @ Weber State +1.4 129.6 58% 64–70 ✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga +10.9 162.5 86% 73–84 ✓
Massachusetts @ Richmond +0.0 135.3 50% 38–71 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's +2.4 143.7 63% 67–72 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Florida State -3.9 144.8 30% 61–60 ✓
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist +2.2 137.4 60% 62–69 ✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle +0.3 141.3 50% 56–73 ✓
Louisville @ Boston College +6.2 136.3 74% 62–80 ✓
UT Arlington @ Grand Canyon +7.0 138.6 76% 77–82 ✓
Canisius @ Mount St. Mary's -1.0 133.8 43% 66–67 ✗
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +12.3 140.3 88% 64–75 ✓
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +8.8 146.7 80% 63–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.