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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas State
@
Arkansas State
|
-2.5 | 136.0 | 42% | 57–52 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
Elon
|
+2.4 | 135.6 | 63% | 54–73 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Drake
|
+16.5 | 140.1 | 89% | 63–74 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Southern Illinois
|
+0.6 | 131.4 | 58% | 64–67 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Duke
|
+3.5 | 151.5 | 71% | 71–85 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Mercer
|
+6.7 | 157.5 | 77% | 52–88 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Northwestern State
|
+3.2 | 155.6 | 73% | 80–86 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+0.6 | 140.7 | 50% | 78–75 | ✗ |
Central Arkansas
@
LSU New Orleans
|
+4.1 | 151.3 | 71% | 63–88 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Lamar
|
-9.4 | 145.4 | 17% | 77–71 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Southern
|
+9.0 | 133.4 | 87% | 66–75 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Alcorn State
|
-1.9 | 136.2 | 44% | 52–65 | ✗ |
Texas Tech
@
Oklahoma State
|
+1.2 | 139.1 | 63% | 69–74 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
USC
|
+6.1 | 137.8 | 77% | 58–72 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Air Force
|
+1.0 | 129.9 | 48% | 73–65 | ✗ |
North Alabama
@
Liberty
|
+15.5 | 134.2 | 89% | 54–74 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Ohio
|
+2.2 | 155.6 | 62% | 73–90 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
San Diego
|
-2.4 | 141.4 | 39% | 77–67 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Central Michigan
|
-3.4 | 149.7 | 41% | 96–54 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Northern Illinois
|
-14.9 | 145.6 | 12% | 102–74 | ✓ |
App State
@
Georgia State
|
+5.8 | 141.6 | 72% | 71–85 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Richmond
|
+6.5 | 150.7 | 76% | 65–79 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
VCU
|
+4.1 | 136.8 | 71% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.