← All models
Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–2 on winners
spread MAE 6.4
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wisconsin
@
Northwestern
|
-2.5 | 133.1 | 42% | 68–51 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Xavier
|
+10.1 | 137.8 | 83% | 51–63 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Liberty
|
+15.1 | 137.5 | 88% | 54–74 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
-3.4 | 155.5 | 35% | 87–65 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Western Carolina
|
-6.8 | 144.0 | 26% | 77–56 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
UL Monroe
|
-0.9 | 134.7 | 53% | 64–68 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Jackson State
|
+4.2 | 132.5 | 68% | 59–63 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
-4.3 | 139.1 | 33% | 69–58 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
Louisiana
|
+5.3 | 148.2 | 70% | 74–76 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
Presbyterian
|
+5.1 | 133.3 | 58% | 78–77 | ✗ |
Morehead State
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
-8.9 | 135.6 | 18% | 56–48 | ✓ |
Pepperdine
@
Saint Mary's
|
+5.2 | 137.0 | 72% | 61–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.