Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–4 on winners spread MAE 8.8 25 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northeastern @ North Carolina +11.8 135.6 85% 62–82 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Fairleigh Dickinson +2.9 161.6 64% 90–87 ✗
Richmond @ VCU +4.9 140.4 74% 56–68 ✓
South Florida @ UCF +5.0 133.6 69% 65–81 ✓
Nebraska @ Maryland +10.1 134.2 85% 71–79 ✓
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt -1.2 143.2 42% 82–78 ✓
Mercer @ East Tennessee State +5.0 139.1 68% 71–64 ✗
The Citadel @ Wofford +6.6 153.3 73% 67–81 ✓
Samford @ Furman +14.3 151.8 88% 64–78 ✓
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +8.4 143.5 81% 81–89 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ VMI +0.3 144.0 50% 77–88 ✓
Arizona State @ USC +12.3 146.3 86% 71–89 ✓
Valparaiso @ Loyola Chicago +18.9 130.4 91% 52–54 ✓
Kansas @ Kansas State -13.1 137.9 14% 59–41 ✓
Drake @ Northern Iowa -8.2 141.4 22% 77–69 ✓
Wyoming @ New Mexico -6.6 140.8 23% 83–74 ✓
DePaul @ Seton Hall +11.6 137.8 86% 52–60 ✓
Duke @ Wake Forest -0.0 146.7 45% 84–60 ✓
South Carolina @ Tennessee +11.7 145.3 86% 73–93 ✓
Minnesota @ Indiana +3.5 143.6 69% 72–82 ✓
Utah State @ Boise State +4.1 140.1 71% 70–79 ✓
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois -6.6 136.4 28% 68–53 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +3.7 135.6 64% 65–51 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Radford +2.4 134.1 63% 77–49 ✗
Campbell @ Hampton -0.4 140.4 47% 76–57 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.