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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
21–6 on winners
spread MAE 12.3
27 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VCU
@
NC State
|
+20.2 | 176.0 | 97% | 79–85 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Charleston
|
+9.7 | 155.8 | 81% | 71–62 | ✗ |
West Georgia
@
Tennessee Tech
|
+20.5 | 149.5 | 97% | 61–59 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
UCF
|
+22.6 | 171.6 | 98% | 83–87 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Siena
|
+12.0 | 140.7 | 86% | 72–69 | ✗ |
Lafayette
@
West Virginia
|
+27.7 | 146.1 | 99% | 59–81 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
Le Moyne
|
+4.2 | 135.7 | 65% | 68–74 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
High Point
|
+24.7 | 153.6 | 99% | 50–93 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Pennsylvania
|
+9.4 | 150.4 | 80% | 74–83 | ✓ |
Bucknell
@
Pittsburgh
|
+9.3 | 137.6 | 80% | 50–84 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
UL Monroe
|
+2.0 | 152.9 | 57% | 79–66 | ✗ |
Stonehill
@
Iowa State
|
+27.7 | 144.5 | 99% | 57–96 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Wisconsin
|
+17.1 | 130.9 | 94% | 69–94 | ✓ |
Southern Illinois
@
North Dakota State
|
+3.8 | 153.7 | 64% | 85–92 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Missouri
|
+32.1 | 167.9 | 100% | 73–91 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
Kansas State
|
+4.6 | 169.4 | 66% | 83–84 | ✓ |
Rice
@
Tennessee
|
+19.3 | 140.0 | 96% | 66–91 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
Gonzaga
|
+34.7 | 149.2 | 100% | 50–122 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+5.3 | 153.5 | 69% | 78–74 | ✗ |
Alabama State
@
Colorado
|
+5.8 | 170.0 | 70% | 66–94 | ✓ |
Georgia State
@
Arizona State
|
+15.8 | 135.6 | 92% | 62–75 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Clemson
|
+34.9 | 147.3 | 100% | 61–81 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Oregon
|
+10.5 | 140.4 | 83% | 75–87 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
Portland State
|
+12.9 | 149.3 | 88% | 80–93 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Kentucky
|
+16.3 | 150.9 | 93% | 83–66 | ✗ |
American University
@
Rutgers
|
+18.3 | 158.4 | 95% | 71–80 | ✓ |
Vermont
@
Buffalo
|
+5.2 | 163.9 | 68% | 90–94 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.