Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | KSU -1000 TLSA +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +1 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -6.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -7.6 (-6.6) | 148.2 (+18.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -6.9 (-5.9) | 155.7 (+11.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -9.0 (-8.0) | 156.0 (+11.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -7.5 (-6.5) | 151.5 (+15.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#88) | 6.2 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#97) | 1.95 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#113) | 2.57 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#90) | 0.656 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 58.7% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 54.4% | 46.7% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 69.0% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 39.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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