Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -1000 VCU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +6 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -20.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -11.8 (-5.8) | 158.5 (+5.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -15.3 (-9.3) | 161.9 (+2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -17.5 (-11.5) | 160.1 (+3.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -18.3 (-12.3) | 160.4 (+3.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 28-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#3) | 7.1 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#117) | 0.05 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#109) | 0.27 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#142) | 0.497 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 44.1% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.33 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 67.6% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 35.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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