Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -340 DRKE +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +9 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -10.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -2.8 (-11.8) | 145.2 (-12.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -6.7 (-15.7) | 143.2 (-10.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -6.7 (-15.7) | 148.1 (-15.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -9.3 (-18.3) | 145.8 (-12.8) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-11 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#238) | -6.2 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#252) | -1.76 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#242) | -2.37 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#215) | 0.281 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 60.9% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 10.0% |
Game Analysis
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