Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ASU -5000 GAST +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -16.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -14.0 (-1.0) | 134.4 (+2.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -11.9 (+1.1) | 134.4 (+2.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -14.6 (-1.6) | 132.9 (+4.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -12.5 (+0.5) | 134.2 (+2.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#164) | -7.8 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#186) | -3.26 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#162) | -4.74 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#223) | 0.298 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 34.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 40.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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