Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -35.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +18 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -31.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -27.3 (-9.3) | 153.4 (+10.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -23.5 (-5.5) | 154.5 (+9.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -33.3 (-15.3) | 155.1 (+8.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -32.9 (-14.9) | 154.3 (+9.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#34) | -12.9 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#48) | -0.78 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#47) | -1.18 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#63) | 0.552 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.6% | 35.8% |
| 3PT% | 44.2% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.1% | 40.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 58.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 37.3% |
Game Analysis
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