Betting Lines
| Spread | SIE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SIE -290 COLG +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +3 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SIE -12.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIE -9.0 (-12.0) | 134.4 (+6.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIE -10.0 (-13.0) | 134.8 (+6.2) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIE -11.8 (-14.8) | 134.9 (+6.1) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIE -11.2 (-14.2) | 135.4 (+5.6) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIE | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#133) | -2.5 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#143) | -1.89 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#148) | -1.76 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#136) | 0.468 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIE | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 43.6% | 18.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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