Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -35.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +72 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -34.2 (+37.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -28.3 (+43.7) | 146.1 (+25.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -25.2 (+46.8) | 144.7 (+27.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -33.7 (+38.3) | 142.4 (+29.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -31.4 (+40.6) | 146.4 (+25.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-0 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#5) | -8.7 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#13) | -2.57 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.21 (#14) | -3.68 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.712 (#19) | 0.212 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.2% | 58.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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