Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -1400 OAK +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +4 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -22.7 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -18.3 (-14.3) | 151.7 (+18.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -17.6 (-13.6) | 157.5 (+12.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -21.7 (-17.7) | 158.2 (+11.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -20.0 (-16.0) | 155.6 (+14.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 82.8 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#63) | -8.2 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#88) | -0.34 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#84) | -0.44 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#107) | 0.630 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 52.4% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.6% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 62.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 9.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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