Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -40.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +39 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -27.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -25.7 (+13.3) | 141.8 (+11.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -23.4 (+15.6) | 141.7 (+11.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -27.6 (+11.4) | 138.7 (+14.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -27.0 (+12.0) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#10) | -3.8 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#38) | -2.86 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#40) | -4.28 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.715 (#17) | 0.302 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.97 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.9% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.7% | 10.7% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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