Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -20000 CAN +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +43 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -24.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -18.4 (+24.6) | 142.0 (+1.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -16.0 (+27.0) | 142.7 (+0.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -19.5 (+23.5) | 145.1 (-2.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -17.9 (+25.1) | 138.7 (+4.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2023 | HPU 78 – 70 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 5-15 |
| Home | 17-1 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 62.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#67) | -10.1 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#177) | 0.48 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#186) | 0.54 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#228) | 0.599 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 10.9% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 61.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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