Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -10000 ALST +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +28 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -6.0 (+22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -7.9 (+20.1) | 158.8 (+1.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -6.4 (+21.6) | 155.3 (+4.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -7.0 (+21.0) | 155.3 (+4.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -6.4 (+21.6) | 162.3 (-2.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#177) | 1.1 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#102) | 1.35 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#98) | 2.10 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#131) | 0.599 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 42.5% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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