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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–8 on winners spread MAE 7.4 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
North Carolina @ Florida State	-3.1	158.1	39%	96–85	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M	+21.7	143.9	98%	56–64	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama State	+2.1	143.5	58%	70–68	✗
Bellarmine @ Stetson	+1.2	154.8	54%	67–69	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ McNeese	+15.5	145.4	92%	65–100	✓
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana	+6.5	135.4	72%	72–69	✗
Northeastern @ Monmouth	-0.4	145.6	48%	73–78	✗
Queens University @ West Georgia	-6.3	150.4	28%	72–57	✓
North Florida @ Florida Gulf Coast	+8.5	161.8	78%	82–86	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville	+3.3	149.2	62%	55–59	✓
Lipscomb @ Austin Peay	-9.7	137.4	19%	95–78	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls	+2.9	149.6	60%	69–71	✓
East Texas A&M @ New Orleans	+1.3	147.1	55%	73–71	✗
Lamar @ Incarnate Word	-1.2	134.7	46%	61–73	✗
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas	-12.4	148.7	13%	93–70	✓
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State	+4.6	154.7	66%	84–86	✓
Michigan @ Nebraska	-2.4	151.4	42%	49–46	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern	+17.4	157.1	94%	56–81	✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State	+15.6	161.2	92%	60–69	✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	-13.7	141.5	11%	81–68	✓
Howard @ Coppin State	-8.3	148.3	22%	61–72	✗
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M	-4.6	150.5	34%	66–77	✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Houston Christian	+0.7	128.8	52%	56–72	✓
Houston @ Texas Tech	-2.5	134.8	41%	69–61	✓
Kansas @ Colorado	-8.8	139.7	21%	71–64	✓
Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan	+2.8	151.9	60%	65–60	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.