We need the funk. "Give Up the Funk" - Parliament
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–13 on winners spread MAE 13.4 31 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Montana State @ Wichita State +17.1 158.4 94% 69–89 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Ohio +30.0 158.6 100% 76–82 ✓
Florida State @ Rice +0.2 148.6 51% 73–65 ✗
Baylor @ Arkansas +11.4 149.0 85% 72–67 ✗
Northwestern @ Dayton +4.8 139.5 67% 66–71 ✓
New Hampshire @ UConn +28.2 160.4 99% 53–92 ✓
Sam Houston @ Tarleton State +7.9 155.5 76% 91–62 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Grand Canyon +16.9 167.7 94% 72–74 ✓
Liberty @ Seattle U +5.9 163.7 70% 66–64 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Nebraska +22.1 149.4 98% 58–63 ✓
Auburn @ Houston +2.2 145.0 58% 74–69 ✗
Pepperdine @ UC San Diego +12.3 141.8 87% 76–94 ✓
Washington @ Nevada +15.2 157.0 92% 53–63 ✓
Boise State @ San Francisco -2.1 147.1 42% 73–84 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Indiana +22.2 158.5 98% 55–90 ✓
App State @ Wisconsin +30.9 143.6 100% 56–87 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Vanderbilt +31.2 149.7 100% 76–85 ✓
Niagara @ Detroit Mercy +17.2 156.1 94% 78–84 ✓
North Florida @ Georgia Tech +7.5 149.2 75% 105–93 ✗
Michigan @ Wake Forest -18.4 143.8 5% 70–72 ✗
Saint Francis @ Campbell +18.5 138.7 95% 65–64 ✗
Harvard @ American University +7.6 141.3 76% 55–67 ✓
Maine @ Brown +22.1 144.6 98% 69–67 ✗
Princeton @ Northeastern +21.7 152.3 98% 79–76 ✗
UC Irvine @ Northern Iowa +5.5 140.7 69% 80–60 ✗
Binghamton @ Miami +28.5 169.2 100% 64–88 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Oklahoma State -0.7 157.7 47% 71–80 ✗
Texas Southern @ Georgia +8.5 149.2 78% 64–92 ✓
Arizona State @ Gonzaga +18.3 140.7 95% 80–88 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Creighton +21.2 173.8 97% 70–96 ✓
Alabama State @ LSU +24.0 161.2 99% 61–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.