Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -900 WKU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -16.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -14.0 (-12.0) | 153.5 (-7.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -10.6 (-8.6) | 153.0 (-7.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-5 |
| Away | 5-4 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#226) | -6.5 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#139) | -1.78 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#145) | -2.51 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 24.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 48.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 39.0% | 35.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 48.0% | 42.6% |
Game Analysis
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