Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -7500 SEMO +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +9 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -31.1 (-22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -27.1 (-18.1) | 148.9 (+12.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -30.1 (-21.1) | 146.0 (+15.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -22.3 (-13.3) | 146.7 (+14.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#14) | -6.8 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#133) | -0.61 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#111) | -0.98 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | 0.250 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 48.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 19.00 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 1.4% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 10.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 64.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 88.6% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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