Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UGA -3000 TXSO +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +28 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -8.5 (+19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -8.8 (+19.2) | 144.3 (+11.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -7.6 (+20.4) | 144.8 (+11.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#223) | 1.5 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#118) | -0.39 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#139) | -0.49 (#191) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 43.5% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 45.7% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.2% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 82.4% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.5% | 66.7% |
Game Analysis
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