Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | OHIO -550 UNCA +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +6 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -30.7 (-24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -17.6 (-11.6) | 149.8 (+8.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -14.4 (-8.4) | 149.2 (+8.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#160) | -17.4 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#258) | -0.36 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#260) | -0.57 (#204) |
| RPI | — | 0.750 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 27.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 23.1% |
| REB / G | 23.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 31.5% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 12.1% |
| ORB% | 17.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 11.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 63.2% | 70.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 56.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 43.3% |
Game Analysis
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