Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | IU -10000 EIU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +35 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | IU -23.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -20.4 (+14.6) | 145.3 (-0.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -22.0 (+13.0) | 146.4 (-1.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -19.1 (+15.9) | 149.3 (-4.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#150) | -9.9 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#138) | -0.41 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#137) | -0.63 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | 0.500 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.6% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 9.8% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 12.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.7% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 61.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.5% | 53.1% |
Game Analysis
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