Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | GT -1600 UNF +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNF +12 | 198 | Lost |
| Massey | GT -7.3 (-19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+49.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -2.6 (-14.6) | 146.8 (+51.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -4.6 (-16.6) | 145.2 (+52.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -4.7 (-16.7) | 146.7 (+51.3) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 85.7 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#132) | 7.0 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#135) | 2.26 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#134) | 3.12 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | 0.750 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 43.1% |
| REB / G | 49.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 12.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 85.7% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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