Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
McCamish Pavilion · November 10, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread GT -14.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Over
Money GT -1600 / UNF +800
Model Predictions
Spread Total GT win
Actual UNF +12 198 Lost
Massey GT -7.3 (-19.3)
Massey Totals 149.0 (+49.0)
Bradley-Terry 55%
Weighted B-T 53%
Baseline Plus ML GT -2.6 (-14.6) 146.8 (+51.2) 50%
Baseline ML GT -4.6 (-16.6) 145.2 (+52.8) 59%
Baseline Tuned ML GT -4.7 (-16.7) 146.7 (+51.3) 58%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GT UNF
Overall 17-17 15-17
Conference 10-10 8-10
Home 14-6 8-6
Away 2-9 7-10
Neutral 1-2 0-1
Last 5 1-0 2-0
Streak L2 L3
Avg Pts For 73.1 80.9
Avg Pts Against 72.7 85.7
Massey 1.8 (#132) 7.0 (#48)
Bradley-Terry 0.41 (#135) 2.26 (#9)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.60 (#134) 3.12 (#12)
RPI 0.500 (#76) 0.750 (#19)
Shooting & Four Factors GT UNF
FG% 48.5% 46.2%
3PT% 25.9% 43.1%
REB / G 49.0 40.0
OREB / G 13.0 12.5
AST / TO 1.67 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.7% 55.7%
TOV% 16.0% 15.3%
ORB% 40.6% 32.1%
FT Rate 17.6% 12.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 40.6% 49.1%
Opp TOV% 10.7% 17.2%
DRB% 85.7% 75.3%
Opp FT Rate 15.6% 18.8%

Game Analysis

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