Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -22000 BING +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +24 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -28.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -27.4 (-3.4) | 156.4 (-4.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -20.6 (+3.4) | 154.3 (-2.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | BING |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-10 | 9-4 |
| Away | 0-10 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#28) | -6.5 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#121) | -0.39 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#107) | -0.58 (#211) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | BING |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 66.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 71.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 10.6% | 28.7% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 60.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 6.8% |
| DRB% | 81.8% | 56.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 36.2% |
Game Analysis
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